August 21, 2019

Environment hard to pick up China's textile exports in November suddenly braked growth

Affected by weak external demand and rising costs, in the month of November, my textile and apparel exports stood at US$20.39 billion, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 29% from the same period last year. At the end of the year, there was no sign of hikes, and textile exports in December may continue to decline. Industry analysts said that the textile export market is still expected to hardly pick up in the short term.

The end of 2011 is approaching, textile and garment export situation is still grim.

Customs statistics show that China's textile and apparel export growth rate in November was only 7.2%, falling below double-digit for the first time in a single month this year, gradually bottoming out, and lower than the 13.8% overall export growth rate of foreign trade in November.

As usual, the signs of year-end hikes have been muted. In December, the growth rate of textile exports may continue to decline, and hopes of regaining the situation are very slim. Industry analysts said that as far as the economic situation is concerned, the consumer market will not be very optimistic at the beginning of next year, and the textile export market is still expected to hardly pick up in the short term.

Single-month export growth "big diving"

According to customs statistics, from January to November, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$226.15 billion, up 21.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down by 3 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, I exported textiles 86.37 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23.9%; I exported 137.78 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 19.6%.

However, for the month of November, China’s textile and apparel exports stood at US$20.39 billion, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 29% compared to the same period of last year.

Although the growth rate of textile exports in November was expected to fall, the degree of decline was still somewhat unexpected. Since June of this year, the growth rate of textile and apparel exports has decreased month by month. From the initial small fluctuations to the current plummeting, the monthly growth rate of textile exports in the third quarter was 25%, 26.4%, and 14.8%, of which the first time in September was reduced to 20 Below %, then to 10.4% in October, then to 7.2% in November.

In November, textile exports reached US$8.03 billion and apparel exports reached US$12.36 billion, up 13.6% and 3.5% year-on-year respectively.

In September and October, the growth rates of textile exports and apparel exports were 16.7% and 13.9%, 18.4%, and 6%, respectively. The gap between the growth rate of apparel exports in September and the textile growth rate for the first time in September was the difference between the two. The month is big. "China's textiles are mainly yarn and cloth, exported to Southeast Asia. Apparel and other end products are exported to the European and American markets. The above data shows that as the textile export 'emphasized' apparel, the shrinking of overseas markets is a clear indication of its blow." China's first textile network Editor Wang Qianjin said.

Wang Qianjin pointed out that the amount of exports in November exceeded 20 billion U.S. dollars, and the number is not small. “But the key issue is not the amount but the quantity. If we consider the unit price of textiles and garments due to the rapid increase in cost factors and exchange rate factors, the growth in exports will be even more sluggish. This year, the growth rate of textile exports is near zero. Alas, even negative growth has fallen by two to three percentage points."

Industry analysts believe that the sharp decline in export reflects the contraction of orders, mainly due to both internal and external reasons: First, sustained economic downturn in Europe and the United States lead to reduced consumption; Second, with the high cost of China's production factors, the price advantage of textiles gradually lost, orders Mass transfer.

Xia Ting, president of the Business Textiles Branch, pointed out that China’s textile products are mainly export-oriented, so the global textile consumer market has largely determined the amount of domestic textile exports, especially the European and American markets and the international financial situation has played an important role. .

Looking back at November (and actually more than November), the debt crisis in the US and Europe is frequent and the demand in the international market continues to be sluggish. As a result, the level of market consumption is at a low level in recent years. Therefore, it is difficult for China's exports to pick up.

According to the customs statistics of the importing country, from January to September, my share in the EU textile and apparel import market was 41.1%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the same period of last year; from January to October, my import market share in the United States was 38.9%, which was lower than the same period of last year. 1.2 percentage points.

Taking into account the impact of the international market, the stock market was sluggish in November, the commodity market was frequently green, and the financial markets at home and abroad were also bleak. “From the purchase of raw materials from the upstream, to the productivity of enterprises, to the consumption of terminals, all fell into the freezing point. It is expected that the export volume will decrease." Xia Ting said.

Wang Qianjin further pointed out that domestic factors cannot be ignored either. Due to the dual effects of rising production factors such as labor costs in China and appreciation of the exchange rate, the unit price of end-products has increased substantially, and the price advantage of Chinese textiles has ceased, causing orders to be transferred to Southeast Asian countries in large numbers.

Liu Junshan, chairman of Hebei Beryls Home Textiles Co., Ltd., confirmed to the author that due to rising export prices, the company’s products have no advantage over India and Pakistan. "Although merchants know that China's goods are of better quality, they shook their heads at prices. If they do not raise prices, there will be no profit for European and American exports."

A responsible person of the Textile Chamber of Commerce revealed that the order transfer has always existed, but reached a peak this year. Mainly because of the rigid increase in domestic labor costs, the price of textile raw materials such as cotton is too high, and many merchants cannot afford to increase the prices of Chinese products, and transfer large quantities of low-grade products to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia.

The international environment has made it hard for the textile market to pick up the last straw of the textile export companies. The year-end hikes have not arrived at the end of the year.

According to market habits, generally entering the traditional end-of-year shopping and consumption season, the export of foreign trade goods will increase substantially, and the domestic consumption power will also develop at a peak. "From this year's point of view, up until now, the European and American market economies have not seen any significant improvement. Although the EU summit has issued a series of rescue measures, it is clear that the crisis cannot be resolved on a short-term basis, and it will take a long period of transition, so this year ends. The end of the year of the textile market will be difficult to achieve at the end of the year," Xia Ting said.

Xia Ting said, "As far as the economic situation is concerned, the consumer market will not be very optimistic at the beginning of next year. The textile export market is still expected to hardly pick up in the short term."

Judging from the overall market, before the start of the new city next year, the domestic textile market will be dominated by consolidation, and the general trend may fluctuate with a weaker trend. After the start of the new market, the main factor determining whether the textile market is warmer is the situation of the downstream consumer market. Only when the terminal exerts strength can the upper reaches be supported. Some industries, such as limited production or price protection, may only find relief. .

Wang Qianjin predicted that the situation will become more severe next year, the growth rate of textile exports will be single digits or even negative growth; the growth in export volume is also not optimistic, because the European and American economies may also decline.

The fluctuation of raw material prices has also added unfavorable variables to textile companies. According to the price monitoring of business clubs, since the second quarter of this year, the prices of textile raw materials have fallen, and they are basically in a state of straight decline. The market is extremely sad. In November, most textile raw material enterprises, especially chemical fiber companies, controlled the falling prices through production cuts, effectively boosting the market. However, the downstream terminal enterprises continued to slump, and the operating rate of weaving enterprises was reduced. In particular, some small and medium-sized enterprises have plans to leave early.

Under the attack of multiple cold currents, companies have to explore new ways of survival.

Liu Junshan, chairman of Hebei Beryls Home Textiles Co., Ltd., said that since the products began to show signs of declining after June this year, EU orders for this year have fallen by 10% year-on-year, and sales have fallen by about US$1 million. Since the outlook for next year's situation is not optimistic, the company is ready to go to Russia to open up new markets, and it will occupy a high-end market by developing new products and developing brands. For example, he said that the use of a new fiber material - bamboo fiber towel, the price can be higher than ordinary towel 20%, a bamboo fiber towel can be sold for 6 to 10 dollars.

Wen Lili, general manager of Wensli Silk Co., Ltd., told the author that few orders were made this year. “Europe and the United States have moved to the Southeast Asia and have gone forever. But our advantage is deep processing. China must be stronger than the Southeast Asian countries. Design is the core of competition. If there is no design, then it will be similar to ordinary labor-intensive companies. different."

Since five years ago, the trend of order transfer has been forecasted, Wonsli is now focusing on opening the domestic market and creating unique advantages in gifts and fabrics.

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